The first ten years of ASC were dedicated to the creation of powerful and unique simulation tools, to the development of extraordinary computing infrastructure, and to the demonstration that its ambitious goals were actually possible. The strategy for the next ten years will set high-level directions that will emphasize a deeper understanding of the underlying science, a continual replacement of the phenomenology in the weapon simulation codes by better theoretical models, and a better understanding of their limitations. Thus, there will be a refinement in the quality of applications within a science-based process that seeks continuous improvement through enhanced capabilities and quantified understanding of limitations in capabilities.
The ASC Program and the other Campaigns will be integrated with structured certification methodologies and will include, as an inherent element, the capability to assess and quantify the confidence in the use of ASC tools to make predictions and informed stockpile-related decisions. Developing the tools to address evolving mission requirements is another motivator that drives us to provide a strategy for the next ten years, guiding the transition from a successful initiative to a more powerful and demonstrably predictive capability. It is also incumbent upon ASC to ensure that the predictive capabilities developed be able to respond rapidly to changing national needs and priorities.
For the next ten years ASC strategic goals are focused on:
- Improving the confidence in prediction through simulations;
- Integrating the ASC Program with certification methodologies;
- Developing the ability to quantify confidence bounds on the uncertainty in our results;
- Increasing predictive capability through tighter integration of simulation and experimental activities;
- Providing the necessary computing capability to code users, in collaboration with industrial partners, academia, and government agencies.